Climate and geographical space: their role in the dynamics of the dengue virus in Cuba
Keywords:
dengue viruses (DENV); Climate change; geographic information systems; multivariate analysis; Cuban warm and humid climateAbstract
Introduction: Dengue is one of the main public health threats in Cuba, where climate variability and geographical space condition the ecology of the vector Aedes aegypti and the circulation of the dengue virus, increasing human exposure and epidemic risk.
Objective: To determine the effect of climate variability on the spatio-temporal dynamics of the dengue virus in Cuba and to propose adaptation actions in response to a changing climate.
Methods: A correlational-descriptive study was conducted using a hybrid approach integrating medical bioclimatology and health geography. Climatic, entomological, and microbiological time series corresponding to the period 1991–2024 were analyzed. Multivariate spatial autocorrelation analyses (Global Moran’s I and LISA), cluster analysis, and the Bultó Index were applied to assess the climatic sensitivity of viral circulation.
Results: A marked seasonality in dengue virus circulation was identified, with peaks between September and November, as well as cycles of very high viral activity with an approximate periodicity of 2 years to 2.5 years. A time lag of approximately one month was detected between climatic anomalies and peaks in viral circulation, with strong spatial association (Bivariate Moran’s I = 0.8–0.9). Persistent hotspots were identified where favorable climatic conditions converge with high population density, unplanned urbanization, and biodiversity loss, amplifying territorial vulnerability.
Conclusions: Dengue virus circulation in Cuba exhibits well-defined spatial and seasonal patterns modulated by climate variability. The hybrid approach provides strategic information to strengthen virological surveillance and to support the development of early warning systems under changing climate conditions.
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