Climate change and ecological stability of the montane rainforest in the Sierra Maestra, Cuba
Keywords:
ecological functioning; ecological suitability; ecosystem resilience; ecological connectivity; habitat lossAbstract
Introduction: The montane rainforest of the Sierra Maestra is an ecosystem of high biodiversity and marked climatic sensitivity; its stability depends on specific thermal and hydric conditions, making climate change a critical threat to its persistence.
Objectives: To assess the impact of climate change on the distribution and ecological functionality of the montane rainforest, estimating the loss of suitable area under contrasting emission scenarios.
Methods: Ecological suitability areas were delineated using Sentinel‑2 imagery, 1970–2000 bioclimatic variables (WorldClim v2.1), and altitudinal analyses. The CanESM5‑CanOE and MIROC‑ES2L models were applied under SSP2‑6 (mitigation) and SSP5‑8.5 (high emission) scenarios for 2060 and 2100. Zonal statistics and spatial modeling were used to quantify changes in distribution and ecological functionality.
Results: For 2060, MIROC‑ES2L projects habitat losses of 32.6 % (SSP2‑6) and 49.9 % (SSP5‑8.5), while CanESM5‑CanOE estimates reductions of 53.1 % and 76.2 %. By 2100, contractions range from 28.8 % to 91.7 % (MIROC‑ES2L) and from 53.1 % to 99.1 % (CanESM5‑CanOE). The most severe losses are associated with temperature increases of 3.6°C and 5.4°C and precipitation declines of −301.2 mm and −515.8 mm under the high‑emission scenario for 2100. This altitudinal contraction compromises ecological connectivity, phenological cycles, and overall ecosystem functionality.
Conclusions: Climate change severely threatens the stability and ecological functioning of the montane rainforest; urgent adaptive conservation measures, ecological restoration, and climate monitoring are required to preserve its resilience under extreme scenarios.
Downloads
References
1. Harrison S, Franklin J, Hernandez RR, Ikegami M, Safford HD, Thorne JH. Climate change and California’s terrestrial biodiversity. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024;121(32):e2310074121. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2310074121
2. He X, Ziegler AD, Elsen PR, Feng Y, Baker JCA, Liang S, et al. Accelerating global mountain forest loss threatens biodiversity hotspots. One Earth [Internet]. 2023;6(3):303-15. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.02.005
3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Summary for policymakers. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, Péan C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; [Internet] 2021 [citado 15 ago 2025]:1-38. Disponible en: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SummaryVolume.pdf
4. Kad P, Ha KJ, Lee SS, Chu JE. Projected Changes in Mountain Precipitation Under CO2-Induced Warmer Climate. Earths Future [Internet]. 2023;11(10). Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003886
5. Urbach D, Körner C, Hilpold A. Mountain biodiversity under change. Amsterdam: Elsevier; [Internet] 2024:11-15. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-822095-5.00002-4
6. Fuentes I, González-Oliva L, Baró I, González MT, Mancina CA. Efecto potencial del cambio climático sobre la distribución de plantas asociadas a bosques húmedos del oriente de Cuba. Acta Bot Cubana. 2019;218(2):160-70. Disponible en: https://revistasgeotech.com/index.php/abc/article/view/295/240
7. Glushkova M, Zhiyanski M, Nedkov S, Yaneva R, Stoeva L. Ecosystem services from mountain forest ecosystems: conceptual framework, approach and challenges. Silva Balcanica. 2020 Jun 30;21(1):47-68. DOI: 10.3897/silvabalcanica.21.e54628 Disponible en: https://silvabalcanica.pensoft.net/article/54628/list/8/
8. Pereira HM, Martins IS, Rosa IMD, Kim H, Leadley P, Popp A, et al. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050. Science [Internet]. 2024;384(6694):458-65. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.adn3441
9. Mori AS, Lertzman KP, Gustafsson L. Forest biodiversity and ecosystem services: a research agenda for applied forest ecology. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2017;54(1):12-27. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12669
10. Zhang L, Wang J. Mountain biodiversity, species distribution and ecosystem functioning in a changing world. Diversity (Basilea) [Internet]. 2023;15(7):799. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d15070799
11. Pant S, Bhat JA, Wani ZA, Satish KV, Negi VS. Editorial: mountainous forest ecosystems: challenges and management implications. Front For Glob Chang [Internet]. 2023;6. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1300020
12. Joel-Reyes O, Acosta-Cantillo F, Bergues-Garrido P. Maturity mountain rainforest syntaxa from Sierra Maestra, Eastern Cuba. Rev politec [Internet]. 2022;18(36):38-52. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.33571/rpolitec.v18n36a4
13. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate change 2022: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Internet]. Cambridge, Inglaterra: Cambridge University Press; 2023 [citado 22 may 2025]. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844
14. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Adaptation Gap Report 2023: underfinanced. underprepared. inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed. Nairobi: UNEP; 2023 [citado 9 ago 2025]. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43796
15. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Summary for policymakers. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, et al., editors. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2012 [citado 15 jun 2025]:1-19. Disponible en: https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_FD_SPM_final.pdf
16. Albrich K, Rammer W, Seidl R. Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests. Glob Change Biol. 2020 [citado 26 jun 2025];26(7):4013-27. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15118
17. Warren R, Price J, Jenkins R. Climate Change and Terrestrial Biodiversity. In: The impacts of climate change. Elsevier; 2021 [citado 3 sep 2025]:85-114. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-822373-4.00025-2
18. Feeley KJ, Silman MR. Land-Use and Climate Change Effects on Population Size and Extinction Risk of Andean Plants. Glob Chang Biol [Internet]. 2010;16(12):3215-22. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02197.x
19. Elith J, Leathwick JR. Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst [Internet]. 2009;40(1):677-97. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159
20. Reyes OJ, Fornaris E. Características funcionales de los principales bosques de Cuba Oriental. Polibotánica. 2011;(32):89-105. Disponible en: https://www.scielo.org.mx/pdf/polib/n32/n32a5.pdf
21. Reyes OJ, Ramón-Puebla AM. Principios para la rehabilitación y restauración de los bosques en la Sierra Maestra. Ciencia en su PC. 2021;1(3):49-68. Disponible en: https://www.redalyc.org/journal/1813/181370275004/html
22. Puebla AR, Rodríguez Cueto Y, Álvarez-Amargos PM. Propuesta de rutas de conectividad para la conservación de la biodiversidad en la Sierra Maestra, Cuba. Rev Cienc Ambient [Internet]. 2020;54(2):51-67. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.15359/rca.54-2.3
23. Fick SE, Hijmans RJ. WorldClim 2: new 1‐km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas: NEW CLIMATE SURFACES FOR GLOBAL LAND AREAS. Int J Climatol [Internet]. 2017 [citado 10 may 2025];37(12):4302-15. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086
24. Future climate, 30 seconds spatial resolution-WorldClim 1 documentation [Internet]. Worldclim.org. [citado 10 may 2025]. Disponible en: https://www.worldclim.org/data/cmip6/cmip6_clim30s.html
25. GEOCUBA. Mapa topográfico de la República de Cuba [shapefiles de ArcGIS]. La Habana: GEOCUBA; 2014.
26. Swart NC, Cole JNS, Kharin VV, Lazare M, Scinocca JF, Gillett NP, et al. CCCma CanESM5-CanOE model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp585. Earth System Grid Federation; 2019 [citado 2 sep 2025]. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10276
27. Hajima T, Watanabe M, Yamamoto A, Tatebe H, Noguchi MA, Abe M, et al. Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. Geosci Model Dev [Internet]. 2020;13(5):2197-244. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020
28. IPCC AR6-WGI atlas [Internet]. Ipcc.ch. [citado 24 jul 2025]. Disponible en: https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/regional-information
29. Iturbide M, Fernández J, Gutiérrez JM, Pirani A, Huard D, Al Khourdajie A, et al. Implementation of FAIR principles in the IPCC: the WGI AR6 Atlas repository. Sci Data [Internet]. 2022 [citado 16 jun 2025];9(1):629. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01739-y
30. Montenegro U. Temperatura media anual. En: Atlas de Santiago de Cuba. Santiago de Cuba: Academia de Ciencias de Cuba; 1991. Mapa 26.
31. Castillo R, Montero R, Amador y Ana María Durán J. Cambios futuros de precipitación y temperatura sobre América Central y el Caribe utilizando proyecciones climáticas de reducción de escala estadística [Internet]. Rev Climatol. 2018;18:1-12. [citado 21 jul 2025]. Disponible en: https://www.climatol.eu/reclim/reclim18a.pdf
32. Firpo MÂF, Guimarães B dos S, Dantas LG, Silva MGB da, Alves LM, Chadwick R, et al. Assessment of CMIP6 models’ performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil. Front Clim [Internet]. 2022 [citado 3 sep 2025];4(948499). Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.948499
33. Schöner W, Pepin N, Arnone E, Gobiet A, Haslinger K, Kotlarski S, et al. Elevational patterns of climate change-an assessment of temperature and precipitation for the mountain regions of the world [Internet]. 2022. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11304
34. Gebeyehu MN. Review on effect of climate change on forest ecosystem. Int J Environ Sci Nat Resour [Internet]. 2019 [citado 25 ago 2025];17(4). Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.19080/ijesnr.2019.17.555968
35. Ulises R-SH, Lucia F-MA. Impacts of climate change on forest resources in Mexico: Regional projections and vulnerabilities. J Geogr Environ Earth Sci Int [Internet]. 2024;28(12):67-93. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.9734/jgeesi/2024/v28i12849
36. Hong J, Lu X, Ma X, Wang X. Five-year study on the effects of warming and plant litter quality on litter decomposition rate in a Tibetan alpine grassland. Sci Total Environ [Internet]. 2021;750(142306):142306. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142306
37. Brodie JF, Redford KH, Doak DF. Ecological function analysis: Incorporating species roles into conservation. Trends Ecol Evol [Internet]. 2018;33(11):840-50. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.013
38. Centro Nacional de Áreas Protegidas y Dirección General de Medio Ambiente CITMA. Plan del Sistema Nacional de Áreas Protegidas 2023-2030, Ministerio de Ciencias Tecnología y Medio Ambiente, la Habana, Cuba. 2023. 47 pp.
39. Decreto-Ley 83/2024 “Del Sistema Nacional de Áreas Protegidas”. Gaceta Oficial de la República de Cuba. 2024;23:139-57.Reyes OJ, Ramón-Puebla AM. Principios para la rehabilitación y restauración de los bosques en la Sierra Maestra. Ciencia en su PC. 2021;1(3):49-68.
40. Hernández Rodríguez M, Cruz Flores DD. Cobertura de vegetación natural en Parques Nacionales de Cuba: análisis multitemporal y variación futura de las condiciones bioclimáticas. Rev Jard Bot Nac. 2016;37:93-102.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Euclides Fornaris Gómez, Orlando Joel Reyes Domínguez, Luz Margarita Figueredo Cardona
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
The journal Anales de la Academia de Ciencias de Cuba protects copyright, and operates with a Creative Commons License 4.0 (Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License 4.0). By publishing in it, authors allow themselves to copy, reproduce, distribute, publicly communicate their work and generate derivative works, as long as the original author is cited and acknowledged. They do not allow, however, the use of the original work for commercial or lucrative purposes.
The authors authorize the publication of their writings, retaining the authorship rights, and assigning and transferring to the magazine all the rights protected by the intellectual property laws that govern in Cuba, which imply editing to disseminate the work.
Authors may establish additional agreements for the non-exclusive distribution of the version of the work published in the journal (for example, placing it in an institutional repository or publishing it in a book), with recognition of having been first published in this journal.
To learn more, see https://creativecommons.org
