Preliminary analysis of SIRD models for the prediction of COVID-19: case of the Holguín province

Authors

  • Roberto Pérez Rodríguez Centro de Estudios de Diseño y Fabricación Asistidos por Computadora (CAD/CAM), Universidad de Holguín
  • Dagnier Antonio Curra Sosa Centro de Estudios de Diseño y Fabricación Asistidos por Computadora (CAD/CAM), Universidad de Holguín
  • Luis Enrique Almaguer Mederos 3 Centro para la Investigación y la Rehabilitación de las Ataxias Hereditarias

Keywords:

prediction, COVID-19, mathematical models, Holguín, SIRD

Abstract

The current difficulties generated by the arrival of COVID-19 worldwide have collapsed health systems even in developed countries, because of the behavioral dynamics of the virus, its high rate of transmissibility, the unawareness of many of the virus's diffusion mechanisms and also because of the also because of the reactive approach by public systems. In this complex context, having mathematical tools helping visualize possible scenarios and behavior of COVID-19 at the national and even local levels becomes increasingly necessary. This article shows some preliminary considerations of epidemiological models for predicting the behavior of COVID-19. A SIRD model was used for its application in the Province of Holguín.

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Published

2020-04-28

How to Cite

Pérez Rodríguez, R., Curra Sosa, D. A., & Almaguer Mederos, L. E. (2020). Preliminary analysis of SIRD models for the prediction of COVID-19: case of the Holguín province. Anales De La Academia De Ciencias De Cuba, 10(2), e824. Retrieved from https://revistaccuba.sld.cu/index.php/revacc/article/view/824

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 2 (2020): mayo-agosto (especial COVID-19)

Section

Natural and Exact Sciences

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