Scenario analysis using artificial intelligence techniques to study the possible behavior of COVID-19

Authors

  • Alejandro Ramón Hernández
  • Beatriz Bello García
  • Marilyn Bello
  • María Matilde García Lorenzo
  • Rafael Bello Pérez

Keywords:

COVID-19, artificial intelligence, scenario analysis, metaheuristics, fuzzy sets

Abstract

Introduction. Scenario analysis follows a systematic process to create a set of two to five plausible narratives that describe possible evolutions of key areas under uncertainty, often accompanied by graphics. Scenario analysis helps to explore a range of possible and plausible futures. The scenario content is based on selected variables and their interaction. The scenario is defined in terms of these key factors or “descriptors”.
Objective. We have developed a proposal to apply the scenario analysis to study the behavior of the COVID-19 in Cuba and Villa Clara.
Methods. The key factors used are: the maximum number of positive diagnostic in a day, the number of days the epidemic lasts and the final number of positive diagnostic to have at the end of the epidemic. For each scenario, three different functions to show the behavior of the epidemic are built. The process to build the functions is based on Artificial Intelligence techniques, that is fuzzy sets and metaheuristics.
Results. The scenarios developed show behavior similar to other mathematical and computational models made for the national and provincial cases, which is important because when the models are built under uncertainty conditions, the similarities of the results based on different approaches are positive, and could offer more confidence to the decision makers.

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Published

2020-05-04

How to Cite

Ramón Hernández, A., Bello García, B., Bello, M., García Lorenzo, M. M., & Bello Pérez, R. (2020). Scenario analysis using artificial intelligence techniques to study the possible behavior of COVID-19. Anales De La Academia De Ciencias De Cuba, 10(2), e831. Retrieved from https://revistaccuba.sld.cu/index.php/revacc/article/view/831

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 2 (2020): mayo-agosto (especial COVID-19)

Section

Natural and Exact Sciences

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