Early prediction of COVID-19 in Cuba using the SEIR model

Authors

  • Luis B. Ramos Sánchez Grupo de Desarrollo de BioProcesos. Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Universidad de Camagüey,
  • Héctor Sánchez Vargas
  • Pablo Ángel Galindo Llanes
  • Hilda Oquendo Ferrer
  • María C. Julián Ricardo
  • Julio Madera Quintana
  • Yailé Caballero Mota
  • Santiago Lajes Choy

Keywords:

COVID-19, new coronavirus, epidemics modeling, SEIR model

Abstract

Introduction. The use of predictive models of the local evolution of the epidemic is of great help for the authorities to take decisions and to evaluate the impact produced by it. Objective. The objective of this work is to elaborate a phenomenological model that allows for making approximate long-term predictions, of the evolution COVID-19 epidemic will have in Cuba, aimed at offering key information to the decision makers for a better organization of the containment actions. Methods. In this work, mathematical modeling, simulation and computational optimization are employed to implement the use of a SEIR-type compartment model, with seven kinetic parameters. These parameters were identified with the observed data of the epidemic and a solid nonlinear adjustment procedure for complex models. Results. The predictions of one year indicate a favorable scenario in the country, if everything remains as it is until now. The interpretation of the identified kinetic parameters reveals important information on the characteristics of the virus and the host under the conditions of our nation.

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Published

2020-07-14

How to Cite

Ramos Sánchez, L. B., Sánchez Vargas, H., Galindo Llanes, P. Ángel, Oquendo Ferrer, H., Julián Ricardo, M. C., Madera Quintana, J., … Lajes Choy, S. (2020). Early prediction of COVID-19 in Cuba using the SEIR model. Anales De La Academia De Ciencias De Cuba, 10(2), e883. Retrieved from https://revistaccuba.sld.cu/index.php/revacc/article/view/883

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 2 (2020): mayo-agosto (especial COVID-19)

Section

Natural and Exact Sciences

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