Numerical models for tropical cyclones prediction in Cuba

Authors

  • Albenis Pérez-Alarcón Departamento de Meteorología, Instituto Superior de Tecnologías y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad de La Habana. La Habana. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9454-2331
  • José Carlos Fernández-Alvarez Departamento de Meteorología, Instituto Superior de Tecnologías y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad de La Habana. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3409-6138
  • Oscar Díaz-Rodríguez Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Autónoma de México. Ciudad México. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9635-1184
  • Alfo José Batista-Leyva Departamento de Física Atómica y Molecular, Instituto Superior de Tecnologías y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad de La Habana. La Habana. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4317-0360
  • Ramón Pérez-Suárez Departamento de Meteorología, Instituto Superior de Tecnologías y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad de La Habana. La Habana. Centro del Clima, Instituto de Meteorología, Loma de Casablanca. La Habana. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8024-2303
  • Onel Rodríguez-Navarro Departamento de Meteorología, Instituto Superior de Tecnologías y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad de La Habana. La Habana. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4277-5384
  • Patricia Coll-Hidalgo Oficina Principal de Vigilancia Meteorológica, Empresa Cubana de Navegación Aérea, Carretera Panamericana y Final, Boyeros. La Habana. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4127-4369
  • Arlett Díaz-Zurita Oficina Principal de Vigilancia Meteorológica, Empresa Cubana de Navegación Aérea, Carretera Panamericana y Final, Boyeros. La Habana. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8982-7527

Keywords:

tropical cyclones, numerical forecast, potential intensity, intensity and trajectory

Abstract

Introduction: The numerical forecast of tropical cyclones in Cuba is performed through the Short range Prediction System and Numeric Ocean-Atmosphere Forecasting System, but both programs systems allow the analysis of tropical cyclones in their computing domains.

Objective: To develop and implement both, a model to calculate the potential intensity of tropical cyclones considering their thermoenergetic cycle as a generalized Carnot engine, and a specific numerical forecasting system for monitoring tropical cyclones from their genesis.

Methods: We modified the classical theory of the potential intensity of tropical cyclones and configured the atmospheric component of the Hurricane Weather Research Forecast model in a new system for its operational run in Cuba.

Results: We developed and implemented the Hurricane Maximum Potential Intensity Model and the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast.

Discussion: In the simulations performed with Hurricane Maximum Potential Intensity, it was shown that the observed values of minimum pressure and maximum winds were similar to the simulated values for the most intense hurricanes, and it was detected that the area in which they reached the maximum intensity coincided with the regions predicted by the model. The track errors of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast ranged from 41 km for the first 12 h to 356 km for the 120 h forecast. In particular, the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast showed an ability to forecast the trajectory of intense hurricanes and the intensity of tropical cyclones from depression to category 3 hurricanes between 36 and 120 h. Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast is skillful for forecasting extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones in the first 24 h.

Conclusions: The systems contribute to the operational forecast of tropical cyclone activity, the development of new research to improve our knowledge of the dynamic and thermodynamic factors that favor the formation and development of tropical cyclones, and its usage for academic purposes.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Downloads

Published

2024-05-16

How to Cite

Pérez-Alarcón, A., Fernández-Alvarez, J. C., Díaz-Rodríguez, O., Batista-Leyva, A. J., Pérez-Suárez, R., Rodríguez-Navarro, O., … Díaz-Zurita, A. (2024). Numerical models for tropical cyclones prediction in Cuba. Anales De La Academia De Ciencias De Cuba, 14(2), e1534. Retrieved from https://revistaccuba.sld.cu/index.php/revacc/article/view/1534

Issue

Vol. 14 No. 2: arpil-june 2024 (Issue in Progress)

Section

Natural and Exact Sciences

License

The journal Anales de la Academia de Ciencias de Cuba protects copyright, and operates with a Creative Commons License 4.0 (Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License 4.0). By publishing in it, authors allow themselves to copy, reproduce, distribute, publicly communicate their work and generate derivative works, as long as the original author is cited and acknowledged. They do not allow, however, the use of the original work for commercial or lucrative purposes.

The authors authorize the publication of their writings, retaining the authorship rights, and assigning and transferring to the magazine all the rights protected by the intellectual property laws that govern in Cuba, which imply editing to disseminate the work.

Authors may establish additional agreements for the non-exclusive distribution of the version of the work published in the journal (for example, placing it in an institutional repository or publishing it in a book), with recognition of having been first published in this journal.

To learn more, see https://creativecommons.org